Free Web Hosting by Netfirms
Web Hosting by Netfirms | Free Domain Names by Netfirms

Heidelberg Institute for Nuclear Disarmament

Einfachstrasse 122
Heidelberg D-69121 FRG
+49 6221 487 0

25 September, 2002

To: The Honorable Kofi Annan
Secretary-General
United Nations
860 First Avenue
New York NY 10017

Report on Nuclear Risk Assessment, United Nations Members
Appendix A: Summary Findings


Access Delivery Leadership Leadership Leadership Territorial Democratic Freedom Danger Relative Precedence Relative
Factor Capability IQ Volatility Experience Phobia Stability To Women Index Score_1 Factor Score_2
------------ ----------- --------------- --------------- --------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -------------------------- ----------- ----------- -----------
Sudan 5 10 75 45 45 45 5 445500000 4.5 0.1 0
Iraq 5 45 75 90 115 85 5 946687500 9.5 0.1 1
Iran 5 25 75 75 75 45 5 1160156250 11.6 0.1 1
SaudiArabia 10 15 75 75 55 45 0 1949062500 19.5 0.1 2
Egypt 10 15 55 75 55 35 5 2067187500 20.7 0.1 2
China 90 85 65 75 45 85 10 253597500000 2536.0 0.1 254
North Korea 25 15 45 75 45 85 10 16256250000 162.6 0.1 16
France 80 75 115 45 65 65 90 15795000000 158.0 0.1 16
England 80 80 120 25 85 15 90 960000000 9.6 0.1 1
India 25 50 85 45 65 45 50 6834375000 68.3 0.1 7
Pakistan 25 40 85 45 65 45 50 5467500000 54.7 0.1 5
Jordan 10 10 125 35 90 45 50 27562500 0.3 0.1 0
Sweden 15 10 125 15 90 15 100 5906250 0.1 0.1 0
Switzerland 15 10 115 25 80 25 100 63281250 0.6 0.1 0
Israel 80 80 100 100 75 125 50 120000000000 1200.0 0.1 120
USA 100 100 70 125 25 125 50 937500000000 9375.0 10 93750













Legend:
Access Factor (AF) - Availability of nuclear materials
Delivery Capability (DC) - Access to ICBM delivery vehicles
Leadership IQ (IQ) - Self-explanatory
Leadership Volatility (LV) - Self-explanatory
Leadership Experience (LE) - Length of continuous government
Territorial Phobia (TP) - Self-explanatory
Freedom to Women (FW) - Self-explanatory
Danger Index (DI) DI = AF x DC x (130-IQ) x LV x (125-LE) x TP x (200-FW) (Raw score)
Relative Score 1 - Raw Score divided by 100,000,000
Precedence Factor (PF) - Whether particular country has employed nuclear arms in past
Relative Score 2 - Relative Score 1 times PF
Top
Access Delivery Leadership Leadership Leadership Territorial Democratic Freedom Danger Relative Precedence Relative
Top